ATLANTA (AP) 鈥� Fresh off , Georgia Democrats are embracing 鈥� and Republicans are reluctantly accepting 鈥� the state鈥檚 transition from GOP stronghold to a premier battleground as the political calendar turns to the 2024 presidential cycle.
Democrats and Republicans alike are parsing their victories and defeats after an extended that ended with Tuesday鈥檚 runoff election. Warnock's win came a month after Gov. Brian Kemp led the GOP鈥檚 general election sweep of Georgia's statewide constitutional offices.
鈥淵ou win some and you lose some, and then the odds for the next round are basically a coin flip,鈥� said Democrat Charlie Bailey, who celebrated Warnock's defeat of Republican challenger Herschel Walker after losing his own bid for lieutenant governor in November.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 what it looks like to be a battleground,鈥� Bailey said.
Looking ahead to 2024, Democrats want to leverage their recent success in the state, which includes in 2020 and in 2021 that gave the party control of the Senate. The Democrats are eyeing a move up into the party鈥檚 presidential nominating process in 2024, as , and Atlanta already is a finalist for the 2024 Democratic National Convention.
鈥淲e're just getting started,鈥� said U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams, chair of the state Democratic Party. 鈥淲e are not a blue state or a red state. We are reflective of the country, and we are not leaving the spotlight anytime soon.鈥�
Republicans insist they maintain the overall upper hand in Georgia, if only they could smooth out internal party rifts and nominate candidates without the kind of personal baggage that weighed on Walker.
Looming above it all is a potential rematch between and in 2024. Biden won the state by just 11,779 votes in 2020, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate in three decades to carry Georgia.
The dynamics put Georgia alongside Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as the most likely determining states in the 2024 general election 鈥� with the added possibility that Georgia could become a pivotal presidential nominating ground for one or both parties, as well. Among those closely divided states, Georgia stands out with its racial and ethnic diversity spread across urban, rural and suburban populations, including a massive metro area in Atlanta that is a fundraising font for both parties.
If the recent run of close elections offers a mutual lesson, it鈥檚 one rooted in basic political math: Kemp and Warnock 鈥� and Biden in 2020 鈥� turned out their parties' base voters while connecting with enough of those in the middle. Walker and Trump, meanwhile, struggled mightily with independents and even moderate Republicans.
Yet there鈥檚 still no agreement on how best to reach the middle, especially when Trump is involved.
Kemp took a swipe at Trump, who to the governor, in his Nov. 8 victory speech, lumping in 鈥渁 former president鈥� with a litany of his critics. 鈥淭his election proves that when Republicans stay focused on real-world solutions that put hardworking people first, we can win now, but also in the future, y鈥檃ll,鈥� Kemp said.
Dan McLagan, a veteran Republican campaign leader, argues Georgia isn't truly a tossup state 鈥� or, at least, it shouldn't be.
鈥淲e only lose when we nominate the worst possible candidate,鈥� McLagan said, alluding to Walker, a former University of Georgia football star who later played in the NFL.
Walker鈥檚 shortcomings included repeated , allegations of and at least one son, and accusations that he of two ex-girlfriends.
Walker denied he paid for abortions, but tea party organizer Debbie Dooley said she heard from 鈥渢oo many Republicans worried about whether it was true." She noted that Warnock outraised Walker by about 3-to-1 and used that money to produce ads that 鈥渕ade him more likable than Herschel.鈥�
Dooley insisted that Trump-aligned candidates, and Trump himself, can win at the top of the ticket in Georgia. She pointed to runoff turnout in overwhelmingly Republican north Georgia, where Walker鈥檚 margins improved from the general election. Trump won the state in 2016.
Republican officials largely acknowledge they鈥檝e been helping Democrats in the Trump era by nominating candidates whom moderate voters see as extreme.
鈥淩epublicans, we鈥檝e been hit in the head with a two-by-four four times over the last two years,鈥� said Cody Hall, a top Kemp adviser. 鈥淲e鈥檝e lost three Senate races and a presidential, and at some point, we have to wonder why we keep hitting ourselves in the head with a two-by-four.鈥�
Warnock was more than happy to accept the circumstances by framing his contest as a binary choice between candidates, rather than part of the national struggle to control Washington.
鈥淪en. Warnock ran a base-plus-plus strategy,鈥� said Democratic strategist Tharon Johnson, noting that Warnock distanced himself from Biden and tagged Walker as unfit for office.
But even independent of Walker鈥檚 troubles, Warnock campaign manager Quentin Fulks said the senator deserved credit for emphasizing his work in the Senate and his personal qualities as pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church. Winning twice in two years, against two different candidates, means Warnock did more than just get lucky in drawing Walker, Fulks said.
In the closing weeks, Fulks said, 鈥淲e kept the race focused on 鈥檛he reverend versus the running back,鈥� but that was possible only because Warnock established himself as a senator who鈥檇 worked with Republicans and was willing to communicate directly to Republican-leaning voters.
Johnson and Fulks both avoided directly criticizing Democrat Stacey Abrams, who lost to Kemp in November by almost 8 points, much worse than her 1.5 point loss to him in 2018. But Johnson said the results show Abrams wasn鈥檛 as effective in reaching the middle.
Some campaigns facing a candidate like Walker in a state like Georgia, Fulks said, would try to 鈥渞un as far left as we can,鈥� but 鈥渨e did not do that.鈥�
With their victories, Kemp and Warnock remain the highest-ranking, highest-profile members of their respective parties in their state, and that means Republicans and Democrats in Georgia will have power centers who embrace the state鈥檚 battleground status and what it requires to win.
Kemp already has opened a federal political action committee account to leverage his higher profile and help the GOP compete with the for Democrats over the past decade.
鈥淥ur donors have to realize that if we would like to stay in charge, we鈥檙e going to have to start investing year-round, consistently and generously, like the Democrats do,鈥� Hall said. 鈥淲e cannot continue to take a knife to a gun fight.鈥�
Fulks said Warnock, after spending two-plus years running for office, now has the space not just to be a full-term senator but also to take on a different political role: 鈥淗e鈥檚 now the leader of the Democratic Party in Georgia.鈥�
Bill Barrow And Jeff Amy, The Associated Press
