COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) 鈥� The crowd at South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster鈥檚 election night party chanted along with the Republican incumbent as he closed his victory speech with a Tim McGraw lyric: 鈥淚 like it, I love it, I want some more of it.鈥�
It was a fitting tune for the South Carolina Republican Party, which got more than just 鈥渟ome鈥� of it in a cycle when its GOP counterparts across the country failed to generate the wins typically seen during a midterm election under an opposing party鈥檚 president. McMaster won reelection by nearly 18 points, double the margin in his last go-around and the largest victory in a South Carolina gubernatorial race since 1990.
But the substantial success came down ballot. Republicans netted seven more state House seats-- including five districts represented by African American Democrats in a surprising result, even after redistricting 鈥� to gain a supermajority in the lower chamber for the first time since at least Reconstruction.
Election night was "better here in South Carolina, certainly, than other places around the country,鈥� Drew McKissick, the state GOP chairman, told reporters on Wednesday. 鈥淚n South Carolina, the 鈥楻ed Wave鈥� came and swept in along the coast and went all the way to the upstate, proving, yet again, what we already know, that South Carolina is a solid Republican state.鈥�
Tuesday鈥檚 results cemented the state GOP鈥檚 gains over the last decade in rural areas, according to Matt Moore, who served as South Carolina Republican Party chair from 2013 to 2017. House districts covering rural counties like Jasper and Hampton, Greenwood and McCormick, Sumter and Clarendon, and parts of Charleston and Colleton all flipped to Republicans. Meanwhile, Democrats picked up one seat in suburban Richland County.
Republicans have been growing their legislative majority for a generation now. When Moore was party chair, he said a total of 80 House Republicans felt out of reach. That there could be as many as 88 House Republicans next term is 鈥渟tunning鈥� to him.
White, rural South Carolina has become less and less competitive, said Vincent Sheheen, a former state Senator who ran twice as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.
"You're seeing that the suburbs are more competitive," Sheheen said. 鈥淏ut you also saw traditional Democratic strongholds crumble in the rural areas.鈥�
McKissick partially attributed his party's success this year to the state GOP's largest door-knocking campaign for a midterm election. He also said strong candidates at the top in McMaster and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott helped 鈥渂uild a straight-ticket machine all around the state.鈥�
South Carolina is one of six states that allows voters to choose all of their party's candidates straight down the ticket with a single ballot selection. The system had long benefited Democrats until 2016, when McKissick said South Carolina Republicans outpaced the opposition in straight-ticket voting for the first time. This year, 62% of the roughly 1 million straight-ticket ballots cast in South Carolina were Republican, according to McKissick.
Republicans鈥� straight-party votes alone set them up to quickly outpace all votes cast for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joe Cunningham.
鈥淪outh Carolina Republicans are supporting the team more than Republicans in other states,鈥� Moore said. 鈥淭he reason is good candidates. Republicans lost nationally where bad candidates underperformed.鈥�
Straight-ticket voting 鈥� along with gerrymandering 鈥� decreases competitiveness and contributes to lower turnout, according to Joshua Meyer-Gutbrod, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina.
Roughly 60% of South Carolina state House candidates ran unopposed, including 55 Republicans and 17 Democrats. That figure is higher than the national average for uncompetitive races, which is about 40%, according to Meyer-Gutbrod. No Democrat ran in statewide elections for Treasurer, Attorney General, Comptroller General or Commissioner of Agriculture.
Lawmakers also gerrymandered competition out of some state House races, Meyer-Gutbrod said, benefitting not only the Republican majority but incumbents from both major parties.
鈥淚t leaves citizens looking at it thinking their vote isn鈥檛 going to count. There is very little chance to swing an election,鈥� Meyer-Gutbrod said. 鈥淎nd the result is they just don鈥檛 turn out. Why invest that cost if the chances of you having an impact aren鈥檛 that prominent?鈥�
Midterm turnout dropped among all South Carolina registered voters from 55% in 2018 to roughly 51% in 2022. Meanwhile, the state added over 241,000 registered voters amid population growth. The number of Democratic straight tickets dropped by nearly 160,000 compared to the totals four years ago.
Some South Carolina Democrats 鈥� inspired in 2020 by record fundraising totals for Jaime Harrison鈥檚 unsuccessful challenge to U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham 鈥� are now questioning how to move forward.
While Democrats might expect to lose in a conservative state like South Carolina, Mandy Powers Norrell said they shouldn鈥檛 expect turnout to drop. For Norrell, the 2018 Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, the reduction was 鈥渟hocking.鈥�
鈥淲e had fewer people actually show up to the polls by a lot. But we increased our registered voters by a quarter of a million,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hat points to a problem with, I think, inspiring the base.鈥�
State Rep. Jermaine Johnson said there was a lack of Democratic excitement, calling the mood 鈥渁bysmal.鈥� The Democratic lawmaker said the party wrongly expected abortion to be its 鈥渟aving grace," but liberal anger over the Supreme Court reversing its Roe v. Wade decision protecting rights to the procedure didn鈥檛 buoy turnout in South Carolina.
Johnson called on elected officials, state party leaders and county-level offices to build a 鈥渃onsolidated, team effort." That process should start by engaging likely Democratic voters and those who have stopped voting on the local issues most important to them, Johnson said.
"If we don鈥檛 stop the bleeding and put a Band-Aid on this bleeding right now, we鈥檙e going to see much worse in two years when the (state) Senators come up for reelection," Johnson said.
South Carolina Democrats face the challenge of convincing Black voters, a key part of their base, that the party can prioritize their interests while statewide candidates attract broad enough appeal to win, said Todd Shaw, a University of South Carolina professor of political science and African American studies. The state鈥檚 Black voters are 鈥渧ery pragmatic,鈥� he said.
鈥淔or the most part, with some notable exceptions, the Deep South remains deep red," Shaw said. "It鈥檚 a Catch-22: you鈥檙e in a deep red state and you鈥檙e in a weakened position and you haven鈥檛 yet built an effective coalition that you can convince that there鈥檚 a pathway to winning.鈥�
Sheheen said boosting turnout requires showing voters that they will make a difference, pulling in swing voters and moderates. That was always going to be a tall task this year for the state's Democrats, he said.
鈥淎ll politics is national. And that is very true in this state," Sheheen said. 鈥淭he national trend gets exacerbated in this state. So if it鈥檚 a light Republican trend nationally, which it was this year 鈥� they were talking about a wave, it wasn鈥檛 a wave nationally but it was still a light Republican trend 鈥� then it is going to be more pronounced here.鈥�
___
James Pollard is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues
James Pollard, The Associated Press
