WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� Farmers, cattle ranchers and hotel and restaurant managers breathed a sigh of relief last week when to immigration raids that were disrupting those industries and scaring foreign-born workers off the job.
鈥淭here was finally a sense of calm,鈥欌�� said Rebecca Shi, CEO of the American Business Immigration Coalition.
That respite didn鈥檛 last long.
On Wednesday, Assistant Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Tricia McLaughlin declared, 鈥淭here will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine (immigration enforcement) efforts. Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safeguard public safety, national security and economic stability.鈥欌��
The flipflop baffled businesses trying to figure out the government鈥檚 actual policy, and Shi says now 鈥渢here's fear and worry once more.鈥�
鈥淭hat鈥檚 not a way to run business when your employees are at this level of stress and trauma," she said.
Trump campaigned on a promise to deport millions of immigrants working in the United States illegally 鈥� an issue that has long fired up his GOP base. The crackdown intensified a few weeks ago when Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, gave the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement a quota of 3,000 arrests a day, up from 650 a day in the first five months of Trump鈥檚 second term.
Suddenly, ICE seemed to be everywhere. 鈥淲e saw ICE agents on farms, pointing assault rifles at cows, and removing half the workforce,鈥欌�� said Shi, whose coalition represents 1,700 employers and supports increased legal immigration.
One ICE raid left a New Mexico dairy with just 20 workers, down from 55. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 turn off cows,鈥欌�� said Beverly Idsinga, the executive director of the Dairy Producers of New Mexico. 鈥淭hey need to be milked twice a day, fed twice a day.鈥欌��
Claudio Gonzalez, a chef at Izakaya Gazen in Los Angeles鈥� Little Tokyo district, said many of his Hispanic workers 鈥� whether they're in the country legally or not 鈥� have been calling out of work recently due to fears that they will be targeted by ICE. His restaurant is a few blocks away from a collection of federal buildings, including an ICE detention center.
鈥淭hey sometimes are too scared to work their shift,鈥� Gonzalez said. 鈥淭hey kind of feel like it鈥檚 based on skin color.鈥�
In some places, the problem isn鈥檛 ICE but rumors of ICE. At cherry-harvesting time in Washington state, many foreign-born workers are staying away from the orchards after hearing reports of impending immigration raids. One operation that usually employs 150 pickers is down to 20. Never mind that there hasn鈥檛 actually been any sign of ICE in the orchards.
鈥淲e鈥檝e not heard of any real raids,鈥欌�� said Jon Folden, orchard manager for the farm cooperative Blue Bird in Washington鈥檚 Wenatchee River Valley. 鈥淲e鈥檝e heard a lot of rumors.鈥欌��
Jennie Murray, CEO of the advocacy group National Immigration Forum, said some immigrant parents worry that their workplaces will be raided and they鈥檒l be hauled off by ICE while their kids are in school. They ask themselves, she said: 鈥淒o I show up and then my second-grader gets off the school bus and doesn鈥檛 have a parent to raise them? Maybe I shouldn鈥檛 show up for work.鈥欌��
The horror stories were conveyed to Trump, members of his administration and lawmakers in Congress by business advocacy and immigration reform groups like Shi鈥檚 coalition. Last Thursday, the president posted on his Truth Social platform that 鈥淥ur great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.鈥�
It was another case of Trump鈥檚 political agenda slamming smack into economic reality. With U.S. unemployment low at 4.2%, many businesses are desperate for workers, and immigration provides them.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, foreign-born workers made up less than 19% of employed workers in the United States in 2023. But they accounted for nearly 24% of jobs preparing and serving food and 38% of jobs in farming, fishing and forestry.
鈥淚t really is clear to me that the people pushing for these raids that target farms and feed yards and dairies have no idea how farms operate,鈥� Matt Teagarden, CEO of the Kansas Livestock Association, said Tuesday during a virtual press conference.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, estimated in January that undocumented workers account for 13% of U.S. farm jobs and 7% of jobs in hospitality businesses such as hotels, restaurants and bars.
The Pew Research Center found last year that 75% of U.S. registered voters 鈥� including 59% of Trump supporters 鈥� agreed that undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs that American citizens don鈥檛 want. And an influx of immigrants in 2022 and 2023 allowed the United States .
In the past, economists estimated that America鈥檚 employers could add no more than 100,000 jobs a month without overheating the economy and igniting inflation. But economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution calculated that because of the immigrant arrivals, monthly job growth could reach 160,000 to 200,000 without exerting upward pressure on prices.
Now Trump鈥檚 deportation plans 鈥� and the uncertainty around them 鈥� are weighing on businesses and the economy.
鈥淭he reality is, a significant portion of our industry relies on immigrant labor 鈥� skilled, hardworking people who鈥檝e been part of our workforce for years. When there are sudden crackdowns or raids, it slows timelines, drives up costs, and makes it harder to plan ahead,鈥� says Patrick Murphy, chief investment officer at the Florida building firm Coastal Construction and a former Democratic member of Congress. 鈥� We鈥檙e not sure from one month to the next what the rules are going to be or how they鈥檒l be enforced. That uncertainty makes it really hard to operate a forward-looking business.鈥�
Adds Douglas Holtz Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office and now president of the conservative American Action Forum think tank: 鈥淚CE had detained people who are here lawfully and so now lawful immigrants are afraid to go to work ... All of this goes against other economic objectives the administration might have. The immigration policy and the economic policy are not lining up at all.鈥欌��
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AP Staff Writers Jaime Ding in Los Angeles; Valerie Gonzalez in McAllen, Texas; Lisa Mascaro and Chris Megerian in Washington; Mae Anderson and Matt Sedensky in New York, and Associated Press/Report for America journalist Jack Brook in New Orleans contributed to this report.
Paul Wiseman, The Associated Press
