PENSACOLA, Fla. (AP) 鈥� As the Trump administration forges ahead with its of the , voters in a northwest Florida congressional district that's home to thousands of veterans will be among the first to put the president's agenda to an electoral test.
The state's Chief Financial Officer , a Republican endorsed by President , is widely expected to win the special election in Florida's 1st Congressional District on April 1 and help pad Republicans' in the U.S. House of Representatives. The seat became vacant with the resignation of former Rep. in a heavily Republican district.
In a longshot bid, Democrat Gay Valimont is seeking to hinge the race on the Department of Government Efficiency Service's push to and . A win for her would defy decades of political convention and could send loud signals about how the president's aggressive second term in the White House is playing with voters across the political spectrum.
Florida's 1st Congressional District stretches across the state's western Panhandle region and is known for its sugar-sand beaches and sprawling military installations 鈥� including the country's largest Air Force base. The district is than any other congressional district in the country and reelected Gaetz to a fifth term in 2024 by a more than 30-point margin over Valimont.
But as Trump鈥檚 executive orders and the slash-and-burn tactics of billionaire 鈥檚 DOGE take aim at federal agencies that serve the region鈥檚 veterans, the faith of some of the district鈥檚 conservative voters is being tested.
The seat opened up after Trump nominated Gaetz . The conservative amid an investigation into , which .
A district that's home to veterans braces for VA cuts
With more than 89,000 veterans, the 1st District is home to thousands of families who in various ways depend on the federal government, which gives veterans preferential treatment in hiring. According to a state analysis, defense spending accounts for nearly a quarter of northwest Florida鈥檚 economy.
A Navy ship docked at a Pensacola port towers over the city鈥檚 historic downtown. Local roads bear names like Commander Street and Petty Officers鈥� Way.
Many service members return to the area to raise families or retire, and they seek care at the Pensacola VA clinic, which staffers say is stretched beyond its capacity.
Tim Chandler, who served 16 years in the Marine Corps, volunteers at the clinic every week, helping his fellow veterans navigate a complicated healthcare system. He applauds the VA's providers, but sees the parking lot jam-packed with cars and hears the stories of patients pushed to their breaking point.
鈥淲e need an emergency room," Chandler said. "We need a bigger building. We need incentives for more doctors.鈥�
As DOGE continues its push in the name of rooting out , federal officials have said they plan to cut across the Department of Veterans Affairs, an agency long criticized for and .
Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins has said the layoffs won't impact veterans鈥� health care or benefits. The VA, in a statement, said 鈥渕ission-critical positions鈥� would be exempt and medical staff and claims processors would not be affected.
Heather Lindsay, a Republican and the mayor of Milton, Florida, in neighboring Santa Rosa County, called the cuts 鈥渄isastrous,鈥� saying they鈥檙e a threat to services that veterans like her brother rely on.
鈥淲e have a demonstrated need in this area. And yet they鈥檙e going to cut VA services,鈥� Lindsay said in an interview.
Jason Boatwright, a former staffer for Gaetz, said Patronis should be defending the Pensacola VA.
鈥淗e needs to stand up and say: 鈥榊ou want to make cuts? That鈥檚 fine. But don鈥檛 do it here. We can鈥檛 afford it here,'鈥� Boatwright said.
Lindsay said she doesn't understand 鈥渨hy more questions haven't been asked鈥� by Republican leaders like Patronis.
鈥淚t concerns me for our future as a nation,鈥� she said.
A Democrat's longshot bid
Valimont, who previously led the Florida chapter of gun control group Moms Demand Action, has made the chaos unleashed by the Trump administration at federal agencies a centerpiece of her campaign.
鈥淚magine if Matt Gaetz鈥檚 seat saves the ,鈥� she told about 150 people at a Pensacola town hall she hosted earlier this month. 鈥淲e have a shot to make this right. Because y鈥檃ll, we may save the entire United States with this seat.鈥�
The Pensacola Democrat has acknowledged that her party may not be able to 鈥渇ix鈥� all that the Trump administration has done 鈥� but said she can be a backstop to 鈥渘ot do anything worse.鈥�
Patronis, a former state lawmaker who has served as Florida's chief financial officer since 2017, has campaigned as a staunch ally of the president.
In an interview, Patronis said he would challenge Trump if he thought the president's actions were harming northwest Florida 鈥� but he dismissed concerns that DOGE's efforts to over are illegal.
鈥淓verything that President Trump has rolled out so far, we鈥檝e been lockstep on,鈥� Patronis said. 鈥淚f Congress right now had a problem with what the president鈥檚 doing, you would see Congress act.鈥�
Trump鈥檚 endorsement of Patronis in November appeared to head off a more robust Republican primary. The GOP nominee is expected to win easily, even though he doesn't live in the district 鈥� a fact that rankles some local Republicans, though residency isn't required by the Constitution.
Lindsay, the Milton mayor, worries her party's electoral dominance is breeding complacency 鈥� among candidates and voters.
鈥淭here are a lot of people who think it鈥檚 probably not even worth their time,鈥� she said. 鈥淏ecause that leader鈥檚 not going to listen to them, because they鈥檙e only listening to President Trump and Elon Musk.鈥�
Even in a part of the state where some are afraid to 鈥渃ome out鈥� as Democrats, Valimont hopes to win over conservatives by pounding the to , and tying Patronis to Florida's . His office helps regulate insurance in the state, which has some of the highest rates in the country.
Valimont's campaign has raised more than $6 million, and party officials say volunteers from as far away as Alaska and Hawaii have come to help get out the vote.
Escambia County Democratic Party Chair Derrick Scott said he thought Valimont has a chance if she can appeal to conservatives "who are willing to take the secret to their grave that they voted for a Democrat this one time.鈥�
For many local Republicans, losing the 1st District seat is unthinkable. Doug Stauffer, chair of the Okaloosa County GOP, says the question isn鈥檛 whether his party will win but by how much.
鈥淚f we don鈥檛 win decisively,鈥� Stauffer said, 鈥渢hen we have failed.鈥�
___ Associated Press writer Mike Schneider in Orlando contributed to this report. Payne is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.
Kate Payne, The Associated Press
