NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AP) 鈥� China and India, after months of refusing to condemn Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine, did not stand in the way of the release this week of a statement by the world鈥檚 leading economies that strongly criticizes Moscow.
Could this, at last, signal a bold new policy change by Beijing and New Delhi to align themselves with what the United States and its allies believe is the best way to end a war that has brought death and misery to Ukraine and disrupted millions of lives as food and energy prices soar and economies crack?
There's certainly an eagerness by a world weary of war to see it as the beginning of a shift by the burgeoning global powers.
Look close enough, however, and there鈥檚 enough subtlety, not to mention spots of vagueness, in both the official statement released at the end of the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, and in actions from China and India themselves, to raise questions about whether a real change is underway.
Their positions will become clearer in coming weeks, but for now both nations, which have significant trade ties with Russia and have so far stopped short of outright criticism of the war, may simply be looking out for their own interests and keeping future options open.
Figuring out what exactly happened in Bali matters because there鈥檚 growing worry that without political and diplomatic pressure by China and India, Russia will be far less likely to end its war.
The conflict in Ukraine loomed large over the two-day summit on Bali, which was attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. News early Wednesday of an explosion that rocked eastern Poland prompted U.S. President Joe Biden to hastily arrange an emergency meeting with Group of Seven and NATO members at the summit.
The backroom wrangling at the G-20 over how to address Russia鈥檚 invasion in its statement was 鈥渧ery, very tough,鈥� summit host Indonesian President Joko Widodo said.
鈥淢ost members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy,鈥� the statement said.
The less-than-universal language 鈥� 鈥渕ost members鈥� 鈥� signals the presence of dissent, as does an acknowledgement that 鈥渢here were other views and different assessments鈥� and that the G-20 is 鈥渘ot the forum to resolve security issues.鈥�
The final product, however, was seen by some as a strong rebuke of a war that has killed thousands, heightened global security tensions and disrupted the world economy.
The public statement used language from a March U.N. resolution that deplored 鈥渋n the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine鈥� and demanded 鈥渋ts complete and unconditional withdrawal鈥� from Ukrainian territory.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the G-20 summit鈥檚 鈥渟urprisingly clear words鈥� on Ukraine 鈥渨ouldn鈥檛 have been possible if important countries hadn鈥檛 helped us to come together this way 鈥� that includes India and it also includes, for example, South Africa.鈥�
鈥淭his is something which shows that there are many in the world who don鈥檛 think this war is right, who condemn it, even if they abstained in the votes at the United Nations for various reasons,鈥� Scholz said. 鈥淎nd I am sure that this is one of the results of this summit: the Russian president stands almost alone in the world with his policy.鈥�
John Kirton, director of the G-20 Research Group, called it a 鈥渂ig breakthrough鈥� and an 鈥渁ctive shift鈥� by China and India in which they joined the 鈥渄emocratic side of the great immediate geopolitical divide.鈥�
Privately, however, some diplomats were wary about declaring that China has shifted its stance on Russia.
Chinese President Xi Jinping may have simply made a decision to not be seen as a spoiler or outlier during face-to-face meetings with other leaders in Bali. The statement also allows China to avoid going all-in with a Russia that is looking more and more isolated as it increases attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
What Beijing hasn鈥檛 done is change 鈥� or even publicly question 鈥� its fundamental relations with Russia.
China has closely aligned its foreign policy with Russia in recent years, as pipeline projects and natural gas sales have brought them closer economically.
It has refused to publicly criticize Russia鈥檚 aggression or even refer to it as an invasion, while criticizing sanctions and accusing the United States and NATO of provoking Putin, although it has warned against allowing the conflict to go nuclear.
Just weeks before Moscow's invasion, the Russian and Chinese leaders met in Beijing, where they signed a joint statement affirming that their bilateral relationship had 鈥渘o鈥� limits.
It was unclear whether China pushed for the softening language in the G-20 statement acknowledging 鈥渙ther views and different assessments鈥� and that the G-20 is 鈥渘ot the forum to resolve security issues,鈥� but Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Beijing鈥檚 Renmin University, said it has pushed for such phrases on other occasions.
For India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also avoided criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Modi, however, indicated for the first time in public India鈥檚 discomfort with the attack when he met Putin in September.
鈥淚 know that today鈥檚 era is not of war,鈥� Modi told Putin.
That message "resonated very deeply across all the delegations and helped to bridge the gap across different parties and contributed to the successful outcome of the document鈥� in Bali, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters.
Navdeep Suri, a retired Indian diplomat, said he sees a subtle shift in India鈥檚 position in dealing with Russia.
China, however, may be 鈥渋n a far more awkward position than India because China is the one that promised unlimited support to Russia a few days before the invasion,鈥� Suri said. "China has (now) gone along with such tough language, including the unconditional and complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.鈥�
Dilip Sinha, another retired Indian diplomat, noted that India continues to buy oil, to trade with Russia and to abstain from U.N. resolutions critical of Russia.
"There is a feeling of bravado in India that it has its way. I don鈥檛 see any change at all in India鈥檚 policy on Russia on the war in Ukraine,鈥� Sinha said.
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Foster Klug, AP鈥檚 news director for the Koreas, Japan, Australia and the South Pacific, has covered Asia since 2005.
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Associated Press writer Ashok Sharma in New Delhi contributed to this story.
Foster Klug, The Associated Press
