NEW YORK (AP) 鈥� The inner-Vatican machinations of have nothing on this year鈥檚 .
Just as Edward Berger鈥檚 film juggles various candidates for the papacy, the race for best picture at the Academy Awards has seen one favorite replaced by another, and then another.
While some clarity has lately emerged, with a handful of big wins for Sean Baker鈥檚 鈥淎nora,鈥� it seems likely to be a nail biter until a winner is declared at the March 2 Oscars, when white smoke unfurls from the Sistine Chapel, I mean the Dolby Theatre.
As of now, 鈥淎nora鈥� is the clear frontrunner thanks to 鈥� both prizes with a long history of predicting Oscar winners. Where the and the fall will offer the last major clues.
But unlike years like last year, when , no lead in this year鈥檚 best picture race seems ironclad. So, with that in mind, here are the best picture nominees, ranked in order of least likely to win to most likely to win. It鈥檚 telling that at least half of these films, with three weeks to go, still have a chance.
10. 鈥淣ickel Boys鈥�
If this was a ranking of merit, would be first. Ross鈥� film, thrillingly and thoughtfully shot largely in first person, introduced a new filmic grammar to American movies. But 鈥淣ickel Boys鈥� was seemingly on the cusp of getting a nomination, so we should just be glad it鈥檚 counted here among the best of the year.
9. 鈥淒une: Part Two鈥�
Denis Villeneuve鈥檚 first Frank Herbert adaptation garnered 10 nominations and won six. hasn鈥檛 been the same awards force. It鈥檚 up for five nominations and will probably walk home with one or two Oscars, possibly for visual effects and sound. People like 鈥淒une: Part Two鈥� but sequels tend to have a harder go of it at the Academy Awards. Blame it on the sandworms.
8. 鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here鈥�
Arguably no film has risen up the Oscar ranks more than under Brazil鈥檚 military dictatorship. The film, , was once one of the many international underdogs vying for a place at the Academy Awards. It won鈥檛 win best picture, but it鈥檚 a testament to the film鈥檚 appeal that it could upset 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥� in best international film.
7. 鈥淭he Substance鈥�
has turned out to be much more of an Oscar contender than initially believed 鈥� certainly by Universal, which financed the film but sold it to Mubi to distribute. It鈥檚 up for five awards but its best chance comes in the best actress category where is the favorite. Mikey Madison (鈥淎nora鈥�) and Fernanda Torres (鈥淚鈥檓 Still Here鈥�) could make that a close call, too, but Moore 鈥� propelled by her 鈥減opcorn actress鈥� narrative and the movie's biting showbiz satire 鈥� is the frontrunner.
6. 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥�
How far can a former frontrunner fall? Jacques Audiard鈥檚 narco-musical leads all films with 13 nominations but the Netflix movie has been in freefall since its star, Karla Sof铆a Gasc贸n, became . I鈥檓 not completely counting 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥� out 鈥� you don鈥檛 get 13 nominations for nothing. But 鈥淓milia P茅rez,鈥� a divisive movie to begin with, is now in the business of salvaging its chances in other categories, like best supporting actress, where could win.
5. 鈥淲icked鈥�
Now we鈥檙e into the top contenders. Most likely, the winner is coming from one of these next five. might have the most moviegoers rooting for it to win, but it鈥檚 missing some key ingredients for pulling out best picture. Chu missed on a nomination for best director and the 鈥淲icked鈥� has mostly been out-musical-ed by 鈥淓milia P茅rez鈥� on the awards circuit. Still, 鈥淲icked鈥� has cornered the market on the role of Big Studio Movie contender. However it does, the film academy is going to make sure 鈥淲icked鈥� is front and center during the ceremony.
4. 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥�
Here we have our Everyone Likes It contender. Berger鈥檚 papal thriller, starring Ralph Fiennes as a cardinal tasked with leading a conclave, feels like the most universally respected nominee. In a year where votes are spread across a lot of films, that might be a quality that 鈥� particularly considering the academy鈥檚 preferential ballot 鈥� leaves 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥� driving the Oscar home in a popemobile. What鈥檚 the main knock against this happening, aside from the potential difficulty of renting a popemobile? Berger was passed over on a directing nomination, and 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥� hasn鈥檛 yet won a major award. More than any other movie, it needs a victory at the BAFTAs.
3. 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥�
James Mangold鈥檚 is also widely liked and lacks any precursor win. But admiration for 鈥淎 Complete Unknown鈥� is widespread and it could, just as 鈥淐辞苍肠濒补惫别鈥� might, pull out an upset by rising high on a plethora of ballots. Unlike 鈥淐onclave,鈥� Mangold was nominated for best director, though, and it has the benefit of being led by Hollywood鈥檚 biggest young star, . Hollywood likes to, in picking a best picture winner, say something about its future. Chalamet's star power could be convincing enough. Plus Searchlight Pictures has previously steered quite a few best-picture winners ("Nomadland," 鈥淭he Shape of Water鈥�). Mangold鈥檚 movie has momentum, which, even if it doesn鈥檛 lead to best picture, may propel Chalamet to best actor over Adrien Brody for 鈥淭he Brutalist.鈥�
2. 鈥淭he Brutalist鈥�
Until recently, might have been the top pick. 鈥淭he Brutalist鈥� has been an award-winner at Venice and the . It鈥檚 up for 10 Oscars. It鈥檚 roundly been hailed as visionary, hugely ambitious cinema 鈥� all made, remarkably, with a budget under $10 million. It鈥檚 also three and a half hours long. Not every Oscar voter, I assure you, is watching it all the way through. That, though, might not be a bad thing for a movie that falls off in the second half.
1. 鈥淎nora鈥�
Half a year ago, 鈥淎nora鈥� was the odds-on pick to win best picture and now, after a topsy-turvy awards season, it is again. A trio of wins 鈥� at the PGA Awards, the DGA Awards and Critics Choice 鈥� has reestablished 鈥淎nora鈥� as the movie to beat.
If it wins at the SAG Awards, too, the race is probably over. Not everything with similar credentials has won before, though; 鈥�1917鈥� had the same wins before being five years ago. 鈥淎nora,鈥� however, also at Cannes, like 鈥淧arasite鈥� did, so it should do well among international voters 鈥� a crucial voting bloc in today's academy.
It鈥檚 also just really good. 鈥淎nora鈥� comes from a widely respected filmmaker in Baker, a prominent defender of the theatrical release. And his movie, a sly and devastating twist on a 鈥淧retty Woman鈥�-like fable, is as connected to Hollywood's celebrated '70s as it is to its indie filmmaking present.
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For more on this year鈥檚 Oscar race and show, including how to watch the nominees, visit
Jake Coyle, The Associated Press
